luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Round of 16 · World Cup 2022 · December 6, 2022

Portugal 6–1 Switzerland: who deserved to win?

Portugal beat Switzerland 6–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Portugal go through 9 times in 10. Portugal made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.3.

Full time

GoalsxG
Portugal 6 2.28
Switzerland 1 1.27

December 6, 2022 · Lusail Stadium · Referee: César Arturo Ramos Palazuelos

Luck index +11 Portugal about even · −11 Switzerland

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Portugal win 8, 1 ends level, Switzerland win 1.

  1. 1 POR 3 SUI 2
  2. 2 POR 2 SUI 1
  3. 3 POR 5 SUI 3
  4. 4 POR 5 SUI 2
  5. 5 POR 3 SUI 0
  6. 6 POR 4 SUI 0
  7. 7 POR 4 SUI 0
  8. 8 POR 6 SUI 0
  9. 9 POR 1 SUI 1
  10. 10 POR 2 SUI 3

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Portugal win 83%, 10% end level, Switzerland win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Portugal by 5.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Portugal by 3+46.7%
Portugal by 220.8%
Portugal by 115.6%
Draw10.2%
Switzerland by 14.5%
Switzerland by 21.7%
Switzerland by 3+0.5%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Portugal1562.28+3.72
Switzerland1011.27−0.27

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
16'Gonçalo Matias Ramos scored from a shot0.10
32'Kléper Laveran Lima Ferreira scored from a shot0.13
42'Gonçalo Matias Ramos didn’t score from a shot0.32
50'Gonçalo Matias Ramos scored from a shot0.51
54'Raphaël Adelino José Guerreiro scored from a shot0.36
57'Manuel Obafemi Akanji scored from a shot0.67
66'Gonçalo Matias Ramos scored from a shot0.47
91'Rafael Alexandre Conceição Leão scored from a shot0.01

When it happened

Portugal’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Portugal was ahead in it, below while Switzerland was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 4' Breel-Donald Embolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +1% POR
2 16' Gonçalo Matias Ramos scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +23% POR
3 21' Gonçalo Matias Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +1% SUI
4 29' Xherdan Shaqiri didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 2% chance +1% POR
5 32' Kléper Laveran Lima Ferreira scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +13% POR
6 37' Remo Freuler didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance +4% POR
7 42' Gonçalo Matias Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance +1% SUI
8 50' Gonçalo Matias Ramos scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance +2% POR

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Portugal go through in 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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