Round of 16 · World Cup 2022 · December 4, 2022
France 3–1 Poland: who deserved to win?
France beat Poland 3–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: France go through 5 times in 10. Poland made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +52 France lucky · −52 Poland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. France win 4, 3 end level, Poland win 3.
- 1 FRA 2 POL 1
- 2 FRA 2 POL 1
- 3 FRA 3 POL 1
- 4 FRA 4 POL 1
- 5 FRA 1 POL 1
- 6 FRA 1 POL 1
- 7 FRA 1 POL 1
- 8 FRA 0 POL 2
- 9 FRA 2 POL 3
- 10 FRA 0 POL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
France win 37%, 25% end level, Poland win 37%. The line is what actually happened: France by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| France by 3+ | 6.2% |
| France by 2 | 10.1% |
| France by 1 | 21.1% |
| Draw | 25.4% |
| Poland by 1 | 20.6% |
| Poland by 2 | 10.8% |
| Poland by 3+ | 5.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 France | 16 | 3 | 1.13 | +1.87 |
 Poland | 12 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.59 | −0.59 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 43' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 73' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 90' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 98' | Robert Lewandowski scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
France’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Raphaël Varane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% POL |
| 2 | 16' | Ousmane Dembélé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% POL |
| 3 | 37' | Piotr Zieliński didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% FRA |
| 4 | 37' | Piotr Zieliński didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% FRA |
| 5 | 37' | Jakub Kamiński didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% FRA |
| 6 | 43' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +22% FRA |
| 7 | 70' | Kamil Glik didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% FRA |
| 8 | 73' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +8% FRA |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). France go through in 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2022
- Argentina 2–1 Australia Dec 3, 2022 · replay 86% for Argentina
- Netherlands 3–1 United States Dec 3, 2022 · replay 64% for Netherlands
- England 3–0 Senegal Dec 4, 2022 · replay 60% for England
- Japan 1–1 Croatia Dec 5, 2022 · pens · replay 41% for Croatia
- Brazil 4–1 South Korea Dec 5, 2022 · replay 99% for Brazil
- Portugal 6–1 Switzerland Dec 6, 2022 · replay 89% for Portugal
- Morocco 0–0 Spain Dec 6, 2022 · pens · replay 63% for Morocco