Round of 16 · World Cup 2022 · December 5, 2022 · pens
Japan 1–1 Croatia: who deserved to win?
Croatia went through on penalties after 1–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: Croatia go through 4 times in 10. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 0.8).
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +59 Croatia lucky · −59 Japan
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Japan win 4, 3 end level, Croatia win 3.
- 1 JPN 1 CRO 0
- 2 JPN 2 CRO 1
- 3 JPN 4 CRO 3
- 4 JPN 3 CRO 1
- 5 JPN 1 CRO 1
- 6 JPN 1 CRO 1
- 7 JPN 0 CRO 0
- 8 JPN 0 CRO 2
- 9 JPN 1 CRO 2
- 10 JPN 0 CRO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Japan win 41%, 34% end level, Croatia win 25%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Japan by 3+ | 3.9% |
| Japan by 2 | 10.7% |
| Japan by 1 | 26.3% |
| Draw | 34.1% |
| Croatia by 1 | 17.8% |
| Croatia by 2 | 5.9% |
| Croatia by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Japan | 13 | 1 | 1.07 | −0.07 |
 Croatia | 17 | 1 | 0.85 | +0.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 42' | Daizen Maeda scored from a shot | 0.46 |
| 54' | Ivan Perišić scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Japan’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Shogo Taniguchi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% CRO |
| 2 | 7' | Andrej Kramarić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% JPN |
| 3 | 42' | Daizen Maeda scored from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +16% JPN |
| 4 | 54' | Ivan Perišić scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +32% CRO |
| 5 | 65' | Ante Budimir didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% JPN |
| 6 | ET 100' | Ivan Perišić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% JPN |
| 7 | Pens 120' | Croatia won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +50% CRO |
| 8 | ET 120' | Lovro Majer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% JPN |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. Croatia go through in 41% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2022
- Argentina 2–1 Australia Dec 3, 2022 · replay 86% for Argentina
- Netherlands 3–1 United States Dec 3, 2022 · replay 64% for Netherlands
- England 3–0 Senegal Dec 4, 2022 · replay 60% for England
- France 3–1 Poland Dec 4, 2022 · replay 48% for France
- Brazil 4–1 South Korea Dec 5, 2022 · replay 99% for Brazil
- Portugal 6–1 Switzerland Dec 6, 2022 · replay 89% for Portugal
- Morocco 0–0 Spain Dec 6, 2022 · pens · replay 63% for Morocco