Round of 16 · World Cup 2022 · December 4, 2022
England 3–0 Senegal: who deserved to win?
England beat Senegal 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, England go through 6 times in 10. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 1.0).
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +40 England lucky · −40 Senegal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. England win 5, 3 end level, Senegal win 2.
- 1 ENG 1 SEN 0
- 2 ENG 2 SEN 1
- 3 ENG 2 SEN 1
- 4 ENG 2 SEN 0
- 5 ENG 3 SEN 0
- 6 ENG 1 SEN 1
- 7 ENG 1 SEN 1
- 8 ENG 2 SEN 2
- 9 ENG 0 SEN 2
- 10 ENG 0 SEN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
England win 46%, 29% end level, Senegal win 24%. The line is what actually happened: England by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| England by 3+ | 8.3% |
| England by 2 | 14.3% |
| England by 1 | 23.7% |
| Draw | 29.3% |
| Senegal by 1 | 15.5% |
| Senegal by 2 | 6.7% |
| Senegal by 3+ | 2.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 England | 8 | 3 | 1.02 | +1.98 |
 Senegal | 10 | 0 | 0.97 | −0.97 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Ismaïla Sarr didn’t score from a shot | 0.63 |
| 38' | Jordan Brian Henderson scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 47' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 56' | Bukayo Saka scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
England’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | John Stones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SEN |
| 2 | 21' | Boulaye Dia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ENG |
| 3 | 22' | Ismaïla Sarr didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 63% chance | +17% ENG |
| 4 | 31' | Boulaye Dia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ENG |
| 5 | 38' | Jordan Brian Henderson scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +25% ENG |
| 6 | 40' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +3% SEN |
| 7 | 47' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +11% ENG |
| 8 | 56' | Bukayo Saka scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +2% ENG |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). England go through in 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2022
- Argentina 2–1 Australia Dec 3, 2022 · replay 86% for Argentina
- Netherlands 3–1 United States Dec 3, 2022 · replay 64% for Netherlands
- France 3–1 Poland Dec 4, 2022 · replay 48% for France
- Japan 1–1 Croatia Dec 5, 2022 · pens · replay 41% for Croatia
- Brazil 4–1 South Korea Dec 5, 2022 · replay 99% for Brazil
- Portugal 6–1 Switzerland Dec 6, 2022 · replay 89% for Portugal
- Morocco 0–0 Spain Dec 6, 2022 · pens · replay 63% for Morocco