Matchday 2 · World Cup 2026 · June 21, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Uruguay 2–2 Cape Verde: lucky or expected?
Uruguay and Cape Verde drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this tournament, Uruguay win 3 of 10, Cape Verde 4, and 3 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Uruguay were expected to score 0.9 here and Cape Verde 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Uruguay | 2 |
 Cape Verde | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +8 Uruguay about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Uruguay win 3, 3 end level, Cape Verde win 4.
- 1 URU 1 CPV 0
- 2 URU 2 CPV 1
- 3 URU 2 CPV 0
- 4 URU 1 CPV 1
- 5 URU 0 CPV 0
- 6 URU 1 CPV 1
- 7 URU 0 CPV 3
- 8 URU 0 CPV 2
- 9 URU 0 CPV 1
- 10 URU 0 CPV 1
The goals
Uruguay’s chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 21' | Kevin Pina (Cape Verde) | 0–1 | +25% Cape Verde |
| 2. 44' | Maxi Araújo (Uruguay) | 1–1 | +30% Uruguay |
| 3. 45+6' | Agustín Cano (Uruguay) | 2–1 | +31% Uruguay |
| 4. 61' | Hélio Varela (Cape Verde) | 2–2 | +34% Cape Verde |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 2, 2026
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- United States 2–0 Australia Jun 19, 2026 · replay 59% for United States
- Turkey 0–1 Paraguay Jun 19, 2026 · replay 56% for Paraguay
- Germany 2–1 Ivory Coast Jun 20, 2026 · replay 53% for Germany
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- Netherlands 5–1 Sweden Jun 20, 2026 · replay 72% for Netherlands
- Tunisia 0–4 Japan Jun 20, 2026 · replay 86% for Japan