Matchday 3 · World Cup 2026 · June 24, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Bosnia and Herzegovina 3–1 Qatar: lucky or expected?
Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Qatar 3–1, and the goals lean Bosnia and Herzegovina’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Qatar, 2 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Bosnia and Herzegovina were expected to score 2.2 here and Qatar 1.5. An own goal helped Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3 |
 Qatar | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +38 Bosnia and Herzegovina lucky · −38 Qatar
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Bosnia and Herzegovina win 5, 2 end level, Qatar win 3.
- 1 BIH 3 QAT 2
- 2 BIH 2 QAT 1
- 3 BIH 2 QAT 0
- 4 BIH 4 QAT 1
- 5 BIH 4 QAT 0
- 6 BIH 1 QAT 1
- 7 BIH 1 QAT 1
- 8 BIH 1 QAT 3
- 9 BIH 1 QAT 2
- 10 BIH 1 QAT 2
The goals
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 29' | Kerim Alajbegovic (Bosnia and Herzegovina) | 1–0 | +26% Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| 2. 34' | Mahmoud Abunada (Bosnia and Herzegovina, own goal) | 2–0 | +15% Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| 3. 42' | Hassan Al-Haydos (Qatar) | 2–1 | +15% Qatar |
| 4. 80' | Ermin Mahmic (Bosnia and Herzegovina) | 3–1 | +6% Bosnia and Herzegovina |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bosnia and Herzegovina win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 3 matches, 2026 · 
Bosnia and Herzegovina · 
Qatar
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