Matchday 3 · World Cup 2026 · June 25, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Turkey 3–2 United States: lucky or expected?
Turkey beat United States 3–2, but the goals lean toward United States: 6 wins in 10 to Turkey’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Turkey were expected to score 1.6 here and United States 2.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Turkey | 3 |
 United States | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +66 Turkey very lucky · −66 United States
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Turkey win 2, 2 end level, United States win 6.
- 1 TUR 3 USA 2
- 2 TUR 2 USA 0
- 3 TUR 1 USA 1
- 4 TUR 2 USA 2
- 5 TUR 1 USA 5
- 6 TUR 1 USA 4
- 7 TUR 0 USA 2
- 8 TUR 2 USA 4
- 9 TUR 1 USA 2
- 10 TUR 4 USA 5
The goals
Turkey’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 3' | Auston Trusty (United States) | 0–1 | +23% United States |
| 2. 10' | Arda Güler (Turkey) | 1–1 | +24% Turkey |
| 3. 31' | Baris Alper Yilmaz (Turkey) | 2–1 | +27% Turkey |
| 4. 49' | Sebastian Berhalter (United States) | 2–2 | +31% United States |
| 90+8' | Kaan Ayhan (Turkey) | 3–2 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Turkey win 34% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2026
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- Ecuador 2–1 Germany Jun 25, 2026 · replay 37% for Ecuador
- Japan 1–1 Sweden Jun 25, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands Jun 25, 2026 · replay 89% for Netherlands
- Egypt 1–1 Iran Jun 26, 2026 · drawn; replay 32% draws