luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 3 · World Cup 2026 · June 25, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands: lucky or expected?

Netherlands beat Tunisia 3–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, Netherlands win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Tunisia were expected to score 1.0 here and Netherlands 3.6. An own goal helped Netherlands.

Full time

Goals
Tunisia 1
Netherlands 3

June 25, 2026

Luck index +11 Netherlands about even · −11 Tunisia

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Tunisia win 1, 1 ends level, Netherlands win 8.

  1. 1 TUN 4 NED 3
  2. 2 TUN 2 NED 2
  3. 3 TUN 0 NED 6
  4. 4 TUN 0 NED 5
  5. 5 TUN 0 NED 4
  6. 6 TUN 0 NED 3
  7. 7 TUN 0 NED 3
  8. 8 TUN 0 NED 2
  9. 9 TUN 0 NED 2
  10. 10 TUN 1 NED 2

The goals

Tunisia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Tunisia was ahead in it, below while Netherlands was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 3' Ellyes Skhiri (Netherlands, own goal) 0–1 +23% Netherlands
2. 7' Brian Brobbey (Netherlands) 0–2 +16% Netherlands
3. 54' Hazem Mastouri (Tunisia) 1–2 +14% Tunisia
4. 62' Jan Paul van Hecke (Netherlands) 1–3 +12% Netherlands

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Netherlands win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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