Matchday 3 · World Cup 2026 · June 25, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Ecuador 2–1 Germany: lucky or expected?
Ecuador beat Germany 2–1, but the goals lean toward Germany: 6 wins in 10 to Ecuador’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Ecuador were expected to score 1.2 here and Germany 1.8.
What the goals say
Luck index +63 Ecuador very lucky · −63 Germany
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Ecuador win 2, 2 end level, Germany win 6.
- 1 ECU 3 GER 2
- 2 ECU 2 GER 0
- 3 ECU 2 GER 2
- 4 ECU 0 GER 0
- 5 ECU 1 GER 5
- 6 ECU 1 GER 4
- 7 ECU 0 GER 2
- 8 ECU 1 GER 2
- 9 ECU 0 GER 1
- 10 ECU 1 GER 2
The goals
Ecuador’s chance of winning
As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 2' | Leroy Sané (Germany) | 0–1 | +23% Germany |
| 2. 9' | Nilson Angulo (Ecuador) | 1–1 | +23% Ecuador |
| 3. 77' | Gonzalo Plata (Ecuador) | 2–1 | +41% Ecuador |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Ecuador win 37% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2026
- Czech Republic 0–3 Mexico Jun 24, 2026 · replay 86% for Mexico
- South Africa 1–0 South Korea Jun 24, 2026 · replay 46% for South Africa
- Switzerland 2–1 Canada Jun 24, 2026 · replay 70% for Switzerland
- Bosnia and Herzegovina 3–1 Qatar Jun 24, 2026 · replay 62% for Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Scotland 0–3 Brazil Jun 24, 2026 · replay 87% for Brazil
- Morocco 4–2 Haiti Jun 24, 2026 · replay 86% for Morocco
- Turkey 3–2 United States Jun 25, 2026 · replay 34% for Turkey
- Paraguay 0–0 Australia Jun 25, 2026 · drawn; replay 66% draws
- Curaçao 0–2 Ivory Coast Jun 25, 2026 · replay 78% for Ivory Coast
- Japan 1–1 Sweden Jun 25, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands Jun 25, 2026 · replay 89% for Netherlands
- Egypt 1–1 Iran Jun 26, 2026 · drawn; replay 32% draws