luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 3 · World Cup 2026 · June 24, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

South Africa 1–0 South Korea: lucky or expected?

South Africa beat South Korea 1–0, but the goals call it even: South Africa win 2 of 10, South Korea 3, 5 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, South Africa were expected to score 0.5 here and South Korea 0.6.

Full time

Goals
South Africa 1
South Korea 0

June 24, 2026

Luck index +54 South Africa lucky · −54 South Korea

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. South Africa win 2, 5 end level, South Korea win 3.

  1. 1 RSA 1 KOR 0
  2. 2 RSA 1 KOR 0
  3. 3 RSA 0 KOR 0
  4. 4 RSA 0 KOR 0
  5. 5 RSA 0 KOR 0
  6. 6 RSA 0 KOR 0
  7. 7 RSA 1 KOR 1
  8. 8 RSA 0 KOR 2
  9. 9 RSA 0 KOR 1
  10. 10 RSA 2 KOR 3

The goals

South Africa’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while South Africa was ahead in it, below while South Korea was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 63' Thapelo Maseko (South Africa) 1–0 +35% South Africa

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. South Africa win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 3 matches, 2026 · South Africa · South Korea

More from matchday 3, 2026

Every match of matchday 3, 2026