luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 3 · World Cup 2026 · June 25, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Paraguay 0–0 Australia: lucky or expected?

Paraguay and Australia drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this tournament, Paraguay win 1 of 10, Australia 2, and 7 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Paraguay were expected to score 0.1 here and Australia 0.4.

Full time

Goals
Paraguay 0
Australia 0

June 25, 2026

Luck index +8 Paraguay about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Paraguay win 1, 7 end level, Australia win 2.

  1. 1 PAR 1 AUS 0
  2. 2 PAR 0 AUS 0
  3. 3 PAR 0 AUS 0
  4. 4 PAR 0 AUS 0
  5. 5 PAR 0 AUS 0
  6. 6 PAR 0 AUS 0
  7. 7 PAR 0 AUS 0
  8. 8 PAR 0 AUS 0
  9. 9 PAR 0 AUS 1
  10. 10 PAR 0 AUS 1

The goals

No goals: Paraguay and Australia drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (42% for Paraguay, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

All matchday 3 matches, 2026 · Paraguay · Australia

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