Round of 16 · Euro 2020 · June 26, 2021 · AET
Italy 2–1 Austria: who deserved to win?
Italy beat Austria 2–1 after extra time, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Italy go through 6 times in 10. Italy made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.0.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +35 Italy lucky · −35 Austria
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Italy win 5, 4 end level, Austria win 1.
- 1 ITA 1 AUT 0
- 2 ITA 1 AUT 0
- 3 ITA 1 AUT 0
- 4 ITA 2 AUT 0
- 5 ITA 3 AUT 0
- 6 ITA 0 AUT 0
- 7 ITA 0 AUT 0
- 8 ITA 1 AUT 1
- 9 ITA 0 AUT 0
- 10 ITA 0 AUT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Italy win 45%, 37% end level, Austria win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Italy by 3+ | 5.1% |
| Italy by 2 | 12.3% |
| Italy by 1 | 27.7% |
| Draw | 36.5% |
| Austria by 1 | 14.3% |
| Austria by 2 | 3.6% |
| Austria by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Italy | 26 | 2 | 1.52 | +0.48 |
 Austria | 16 | 1 | 1.04 | −0.04 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 94' | Federico Chiesa scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 104' | Matteo Pessina scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 113' | Sasa Kalajdzic scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Italy’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Nicolò Barella didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% AUT |
| 2 | 48' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ITA |
| 3 | 51' | David Olatukunbo Alaba didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +3% ITA |
| 4 | 71' | Manuel Locatelli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% AUT |
| 5 | 82' | Domenico Berardi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% AUT |
| 6 | ET 94' | Federico Chiesa scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +33% ITA |
| 7 | ET 104' | Matteo Pessina scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% ITA |
| 8 | ET 113' | Sasa Kalajdzic scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% AUT |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to extra time: after 90 minutes it stood 0–0. Italy go through in 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2020
- Wales 0–4 Denmark Jun 26, 2021 · replay 92% for Denmark
- Belgium 1–0 Portugal Jun 27, 2021 · replay 21% for Belgium
- Netherlands 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 27, 2021 · replay 64% for Czech Republic
- Croatia 3–5 Spain Jun 28, 2021 · AET · replay 55% for Spain
- France 3–3 Switzerland Jun 28, 2021 · pens · replay 46% for Switzerland
- Sweden 1–2 Ukraine Jun 29, 2021 · AET · replay 45% for Ukraine
- England 2–0 Germany Jun 29, 2021 · replay 58% for England