Round of 16 · Euro 2020 · June 27, 2021
Belgium 1–0 Portugal: who deserved to win?
Belgium beat Portugal 1–0, but the replays send Portugal through 8 times in 10. Portugal made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.2.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +79 Belgium very lucky · −79 Portugal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Belgium win 1, 3 end level, Portugal win 6.
- 1 BEL 1 POR 0
- 2 BEL 0 POR 0
- 3 BEL 0 POR 0
- 4 BEL 1 POR 1
- 5 BEL 0 POR 3
- 6 BEL 0 POR 2
- 7 BEL 0 POR 2
- 8 BEL 0 POR 1
- 9 BEL 0 POR 1
- 10 BEL 1 POR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Belgium win 9%, 33% end level, Portugal win 58%. The line is what actually happened: Belgium by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Belgium by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Belgium by 2 | 1.2% |
| Belgium by 1 | 8.0% |
| Draw | 33.0% |
| Portugal by 1 | 32.6% |
| Portugal by 2 | 17.3% |
| Portugal by 3+ | 7.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | 6 | 1 | 0.22 | +0.78 |
 Portugal | 23 | 0 | 1.21 | −1.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 41' | Thorgan Hazard scored from a shot | 0.02 |
When it happened
Belgium’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Diogo José Teixeira da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% BEL |
| 2 | 41' | Thorgan Hazard scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +29% BEL |
| 3 | 57' | Diogo José Teixeira da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% BEL |
| 4 | 60' | João Félix Sequeira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% BEL |
| 5 | 79' | André Miguel Valente Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BEL |
| 6 | 81' | Rúben Santos Gato Alves Dias didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% BEL |
| 7 | 82' | Raphaël Adelino José Guerreiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% BEL |
| 8 | 87' | André Miguel Valente Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +14% BEL |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Belgium go through in 21% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2020
- Italy 2–1 Austria Jun 26, 2021 · AET · replay 65% for Italy
- Wales 0–4 Denmark Jun 26, 2021 · replay 92% for Denmark
- Netherlands 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 27, 2021 · replay 64% for Czech Republic
- Croatia 3–5 Spain Jun 28, 2021 · AET · replay 55% for Spain
- France 3–3 Switzerland Jun 28, 2021 · pens · replay 46% for Switzerland
- Sweden 1–2 Ukraine Jun 29, 2021 · AET · replay 45% for Ukraine
- England 2–0 Germany Jun 29, 2021 · replay 58% for England