Round of 16 · Euro 2020 · June 28, 2021 · pens
France 3–3 Switzerland: who deserved to win?
Switzerland went through on penalties after 3–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: Switzerland go through 5 times in 10. France made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 1.9.
Full time · won on penalties
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 France | 3 | 2.65 |
 Switzerland | 3 | 1.85 |
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +54 Switzerland lucky · −54 France
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. France win 4, 2 end level, Switzerland win 4.
- 1 FRA 2 SUI 1
- 2 FRA 2 SUI 1
- 3 FRA 4 SUI 2
- 4 FRA 3 SUI 0
- 5 FRA 2 SUI 2
- 6 FRA 1 SUI 1
- 7 FRA 1 SUI 4
- 8 FRA 2 SUI 4
- 9 FRA 0 SUI 1
- 10 FRA 1 SUI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
France win 43%, 21% end level, Switzerland win 37%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| France by 3+ | 10.6% |
| France by 2 | 13.2% |
| France by 1 | 19.0% |
| Draw | 20.5% |
| Switzerland by 1 | 17.0% |
| Switzerland by 2 | 10.5% |
| Switzerland by 3+ | 9.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 France | 26 | 3 | 2.65 | +0.35 |
 Switzerland | 13 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.85 | +1.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Haris Seferović scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 54' | Ricardo Iván Rodríguez Araya didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 56' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 58' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 58' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.61 |
| 74' | Paul Pogba scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 80' | Haris Seferović scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 89' | Mario Gavranović scored from a shot | 0.20 |
When it happened
France’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Haris Seferović scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +21% SUI |
| 2 | 54' | Ricardo Iván Rodríguez Araya didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +10% FRA |
| 3 | 56' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +19% FRA |
| 4 | 58' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +11% SUI |
| 5 | 58' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 61% chance | +14% FRA |
| 6 | 74' | Paul Pogba scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +8% FRA |
| 7 | 89' | Mario Gavranović scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +40% SUI |
| 8 | Pens 120' | Switzerland won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +50% SUI |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 3–3. Switzerland go through in 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2020
- Italy 2–1 Austria Jun 26, 2021 · AET · replay 65% for Italy
- Wales 0–4 Denmark Jun 26, 2021 · replay 92% for Denmark
- Belgium 1–0 Portugal Jun 27, 2021 · replay 21% for Belgium
- Netherlands 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 27, 2021 · replay 64% for Czech Republic
- Croatia 3–5 Spain Jun 28, 2021 · AET · replay 55% for Spain
- Sweden 1–2 Ukraine Jun 29, 2021 · AET · replay 45% for Ukraine
- England 2–0 Germany Jun 29, 2021 · replay 58% for England