luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Round of 16 · Euro 2020 · June 27, 2021

Netherlands 0–2 Czech Republic: who deserved to win?

Czech Republic beat Netherlands 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Czech Republic go through 6 times in 10. Czech Republic made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.8.

Full time

GoalsxG
Netherlands 0 0.84
Czech Republic 2 1.27

June 27, 2021 · Puskás Aréna · Referee: Sergey Karasev

Luck index +36 Czech Republic lucky · −36 Netherlands

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Netherlands win 2, 3 end level, Czech Republic win 5.

  1. 1 NED 2 CZE 1
  2. 2 NED 4 CZE 2
  3. 3 NED 2 CZE 2
  4. 4 NED 0 CZE 0
  5. 5 NED 0 CZE 0
  6. 6 NED 0 CZE 3
  7. 7 NED 1 CZE 3
  8. 8 NED 1 CZE 3
  9. 9 NED 1 CZE 2
  10. 10 NED 0 CZE 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Netherlands win 24%, 26% end level, Czech Republic win 49%. The line is what actually happened: Czech Republic by 2.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Netherlands by 3+1.7%
Netherlands by 26.4%
Netherlands by 116.2%
Draw26.4%
Czech Republic by 125.2%
Czech Republic by 215.0%
Czech Republic by 3+9.1%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Netherlands600.84−0.84
Czech Republic1221.27+0.73

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
7'Matthijs de Ligt didn’t score from a shot0.49
67'Tomáš Holeš scored from a shot0.30
79'Patrik Schick scored from a shot0.19

When it happened

Netherlands’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Netherlands was ahead in it, below while Czech Republic was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 7' Matthijs de Ligt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance +12% CZE
2 21' Tomáš Souček didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance +7% NED
3 37' Antonín Barák didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +3% NED
4 38' Tomáš Souček didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% NED
5 46' Patrick van Aanholt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance +7% CZE
6 63' Pavel Kadeřábek didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance +7% NED
7 67' Tomáš Holeš scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance +27% CZE
8 79' Patrik Schick scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance +5% CZE

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Czech Republic go through in 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All round of 16 matches, 2020 · Netherlands · Czech Republic

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