Round of 16 · Euro 2020 · June 28, 2021 · AET
Croatia 3–5 Spain: who deserved to win?
Spain beat Croatia 5–3 after extra time, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: Spain go through 6 times in 10. The chances were close to even (2.8 expected goals to 2.8). An own goal helped Croatia.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +45 Spain lucky · −45 Croatia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Croatia win 3, 2 end level, Spain win 5.
- 1 CRO 1 ESP 0
- 2 CRO 3 ESP 1
- 3 CRO 4 ESP 2
- 4 CRO 1 ESP 1
- 5 CRO 2 ESP 2
- 6 CRO 1 ESP 4
- 7 CRO 3 ESP 5
- 8 CRO 1 ESP 2
- 9 CRO 1 ESP 2
- 10 CRO 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Croatia win 33%, 21% end level, Spain win 46%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Croatia by 3+ | 5.9% |
| Croatia by 2 | 10.1% |
| Croatia by 1 | 16.9% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Spain by 1 | 20.5% |
| Spain by 2 | 14.3% |
| Spain by 3+ | 11.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Croatia | 11 | 2 | 2.79 | −0.79 |
 Spain | 24 | 5 | 2.78 | +2.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 37' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 56' | César Azpilicueta Tanco scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 76' | Ferrán Torres García scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 84' | Ante Budimir didn’t score from a shot | 0.62 |
| 84' | Mislav Oršić scored from a shot | 0.96 |
| 91' | Mario Pašalić scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 95' | Andrej Kramarić didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 99' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 102' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte scored from a shot | 0.20 |
When it happened
Croatia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Own goal by nan, for CroatiaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +25% CRO |
| 2 | 37' | The game turned herePablo Sarabia García scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +22% ESP |
| 3 | 56' | César Azpilicueta Tanco scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +21% ESP |
| 4 | 76' | Ferrán Torres García scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +6% ESP |
| 5 | 91' | Mario Pašalić scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +38% CRO |
| 6 | ET 95' | Andrej Kramarić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +15% ESP |
| 7 | ET 99' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +34% ESP |
| 8 | ET 102' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% ESP |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to extra time: after 90 minutes it stood 3–3. Spain go through in 55% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2020
- Italy 2–1 Austria Jun 26, 2021 · AET · replay 65% for Italy
- Wales 0–4 Denmark Jun 26, 2021 · replay 92% for Denmark
- Belgium 1–0 Portugal Jun 27, 2021 · replay 21% for Belgium
- Netherlands 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 27, 2021 · replay 64% for Czech Republic
- France 3–3 Switzerland Jun 28, 2021 · pens · replay 46% for Switzerland
- Sweden 1–2 Ukraine Jun 29, 2021 · AET · replay 45% for Ukraine
- England 2–0 Germany Jun 29, 2021 · replay 58% for England