Round of 16 · Euro 2020 · June 29, 2021
England 2–0 Germany: who deserved to win?
England beat Germany 2–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: England go through 6 times in 10. The chances were close to even (1.2 expected goals to 1.1).
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +42 England lucky · −42 Germany
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. England win 4, 3 end level, Germany win 3.
- 1 ENG 1 GER 0
- 2 ENG 1 GER 0
- 3 ENG 2 GER 0
- 4 ENG 3 GER 0
- 5 ENG 1 GER 1
- 6 ENG 1 GER 1
- 7 ENG 0 GER 0
- 8 ENG 0 GER 2
- 9 ENG 1 GER 2
- 10 ENG 0 GER 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
England win 43%, 28% end level, Germany win 29%. The line is what actually happened: England by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| England by 3+ | 7.8% |
| England by 2 | 12.3% |
| England by 1 | 22.9% |
| Draw | 28.4% |
| Germany by 1 | 18.4% |
| Germany by 2 | 7.0% |
| Germany by 3+ | 3.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 England | 5 | 2 | 1.16 | +0.84 |
 Germany | 9 | 0 | 1.06 | −1.06 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 74' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shot | 0.50 |
| 85' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.44 |
When it happened
England’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26' | Harry Maguire didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% GER |
| 2 | 31' | Timo Werner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% ENG |
| 3 | 47' | Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ENG |
| 4 | 52' | Robin Gosens didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +10% ENG |
| 5 | 74' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +21% ENG |
| 6 | 77' | Thomas Müller didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +3% ENG |
| 7 | 80' | Thomas Müller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +12% ENG |
| 8 | 85' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +2% ENG |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). England go through in 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2020
- Italy 2–1 Austria Jun 26, 2021 · AET · replay 65% for Italy
- Wales 0–4 Denmark Jun 26, 2021 · replay 92% for Denmark
- Belgium 1–0 Portugal Jun 27, 2021 · replay 21% for Belgium
- Netherlands 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 27, 2021 · replay 64% for Czech Republic
- Croatia 3–5 Spain Jun 28, 2021 · AET · replay 55% for Spain
- France 3–3 Switzerland Jun 28, 2021 · pens · replay 46% for Switzerland
- Sweden 1–2 Ukraine Jun 29, 2021 · AET · replay 45% for Ukraine