Round of 16 · Euro 2020 · June 29, 2021 · AET
Sweden 1–2 Ukraine: who deserved to win?
Ukraine beat Sweden 2–1 after extra time, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: Ukraine go through 4 times in 10. Ukraine made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.9.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +55 Ukraine lucky · −55 Sweden
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Sweden win 4, 4 end level, Ukraine win 2.
- 1 SWE 2 UKR 1
- 2 SWE 1 UKR 0
- 3 SWE 1 UKR 0
- 4 SWE 2 UKR 0
- 5 SWE 1 UKR 1
- 6 SWE 1 UKR 1
- 7 SWE 1 UKR 1
- 8 SWE 2 UKR 2
- 9 SWE 0 UKR 1
- 10 SWE 0 UKR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sweden win 36%, 37% end level, Ukraine win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sweden by 3+ | 3.5% |
| Sweden by 2 | 9.0% |
| Sweden by 1 | 23.4% |
| Draw | 36.6% |
| Ukraine by 1 | 19.5% |
| Ukraine by 2 | 6.2% |
| Ukraine by 3+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sweden | 13 | 1 | 0.91 | +0.09 |
 Ukraine | 15 | 2 | 1.34 | +0.66 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Oleksandr Zinchenko scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 42' | Emil Peter Forsberg scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 110' | Artem Dovbyk didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 120' | Artem Dovbyk scored from a shot | 0.17 |
When it happened
Sweden’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Roman Yaremchuk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +6% SWE |
| 2 | 17' | Emil Peter Forsberg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% UKR |
| 3 | 26' | Oleksandr Zinchenko scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +26% UKR |
| 4 | 42' | Emil Peter Forsberg scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +29% SWE |
| 5 | 59' | Alexander Isak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% UKR |
| 6 | ET 108' | Emil Peter Forsberg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% UKR |
| 7 | ET 110' | Artem Dovbyk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +15% SWE |
| 8 | ET 120' | Artem Dovbyk scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +41% UKR |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to extra time: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. Ukraine go through in 45% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2020
- Italy 2–1 Austria Jun 26, 2021 · AET · replay 65% for Italy
- Wales 0–4 Denmark Jun 26, 2021 · replay 92% for Denmark
- Belgium 1–0 Portugal Jun 27, 2021 · replay 21% for Belgium
- Netherlands 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 27, 2021 · replay 64% for Czech Republic
- Croatia 3–5 Spain Jun 28, 2021 · AET · replay 55% for Spain
- France 3–3 Switzerland Jun 28, 2021 · pens · replay 46% for Switzerland
- England 2–0 Germany Jun 29, 2021 · replay 58% for England