Matchday 18 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 3, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Elche 1–3 Villarreal: lucky or expected?
Villarreal beat Elche 3–1, and the goals lean Villarreal’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Elche, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Elche were expected to score 1.4 here and Villarreal 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Elche | 1 |
 Villarreal | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +43 Villarreal lucky · −43 Elche
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Elche win 3, 2 end level, Villarreal win 5.
- 1 ELC 4 VIL 3
- 2 ELC 2 VIL 1
- 3 ELC 4 VIL 2
- 4 ELC 0 VIL 0
- 5 ELC 0 VIL 0
- 6 ELC 1 VIL 4
- 7 ELC 0 VIL 2
- 8 ELC 0 VIL 2
- 9 ELC 0 VIL 1
- 10 ELC 0 VIL 1
The goals
Elche’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7' | Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal) | 0–1 | +25% Villarreal |
| 2. 13' | Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal) | 0–2 | +19% Villarreal |
| 3. 30' | Martim Neto (Elche) | 1–2 | +18% Elche |
| 4. 83' | Alfonso Pedraza Sag (Villarreal) | 1–3 | +5% Villarreal |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Villarreal win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 18, 2025-26
- Rayo 1–1 Getafe Jan 2, 2026 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Celta 4–1 Valencia Jan 3, 2026 · replay 65% for Celta
- Osasuna 1–1 Athletic Jan 3, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Espanyol 0–2 Barcelona Jan 3, 2026 · replay 74% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 0–3 Levante Jan 4, 2026 · replay 42% for Levante
- Real Madrid 5–1 Betis Jan 4, 2026 · replay 73% for Real Madrid
- Alavés 1–1 Oviedo Jan 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Mallorca 1–2 Girona Jan 4, 2026 · replay 39% for Girona
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Atlético Jan 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws