Matchday 18 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 3, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Celta 4–1 Valencia: lucky or expected?
Celta beat Valencia 4–1, and the goals lean Celta’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Valencia, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Celta were expected to score 1.6 here and Valencia 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 4 |
 Valencia | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +35 Celta lucky · −35 Valencia
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 5, 3 end level, Valencia win 2.
- 1 CEL 1 VAL 0
- 2 CEL 2 VAL 1
- 3 CEL 3 VAL 1
- 4 CEL 3 VAL 1
- 5 CEL 3 VAL 0
- 6 CEL 2 VAL 2
- 7 CEL 1 VAL 1
- 8 CEL 2 VAL 2
- 9 CEL 1 VAL 3
- 10 CEL 1 VAL 2
The goals
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 33' | Borja Iglesias (Celta, penalty) | 1–0 | +26% Celta |
| 2. 59' | Borja Iglesias (Celta) | 2–0 | +10% Celta |
| 3. 70' | Pepelu (Valencia) | 2–1 | +8% Valencia |
| 4. 83' | Jones El Abdellaoui (Celta) | 3–1 | +4% Celta |
| 90+4' | Hugo Álvarez (Celta) | 4–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Celta win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 18, 2025-26
- Rayo 1–1 Getafe Jan 2, 2026 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Osasuna 1–1 Athletic Jan 3, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Elche 1–3 Villarreal Jan 3, 2026 · replay 57% for Villarreal
- Espanyol 0–2 Barcelona Jan 3, 2026 · replay 74% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 0–3 Levante Jan 4, 2026 · replay 42% for Levante
- Real Madrid 5–1 Betis Jan 4, 2026 · replay 73% for Real Madrid
- Alavés 1–1 Oviedo Jan 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Mallorca 1–2 Girona Jan 4, 2026 · replay 39% for Girona
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Atlético Jan 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws