Matchday 18 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 4, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Madrid 5–1 Betis: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Betis 5–1, and the goals lean Real Madrid’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Betis, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Madrid were expected to score 2.1 here and Betis 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 5 |
 Real Betis | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +27 Real Madrid lucky · −27 Betis
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 6, 2 end level, Betis win 2.
- 1 RMA 2 BET 1
- 2 RMA 1 BET 0
- 3 RMA 4 BET 2
- 4 RMA 3 BET 1
- 5 RMA 4 BET 1
- 6 RMA 4 BET 0
- 7 RMA 2 BET 2
- 8 RMA 0 BET 0
- 9 RMA 0 BET 1
- 10 RMA 1 BET 2
The goals
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 20' | Gonzalo Garcia (Real Madrid) | 1–0 | +23% Real Madrid |
| 2. 50' | Gonzalo Garcia (Real Madrid) | 2–0 | +11% Real Madrid |
| 3. 56' | Raúl Asencio (Real Madrid) | 3–0 | +2% Real Madrid |
| 4. 66' | Cucho Hernandez (Betis) | 3–1 | +1% Betis |
| 5. 82' | Gonzalo Garcia (Real Madrid) | 4–1 | +0% Real Madrid |
| 90+3' | Fran Garcia (Real Madrid) | 5–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 18, 2025-26
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