Matchday 18 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 4, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Alavés 1–1 Oviedo: lucky or expected?
Alavés and Oviedo drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Alavés win 6 of 10, Oviedo 1, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Alavés were expected to score 1.6 here and Oviedo 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Alavés | 1 |
 Real Oviedo | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −22 Alavés about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Alavés win 6, 3 end level, Oviedo win 1.
- 1 ALA 1 OVI 0
- 2 ALA 1 OVI 0
- 3 ALA 1 OVI 0
- 4 ALA 2 OVI 0
- 5 ALA 3 OVI 1
- 6 ALA 3 OVI 0
- 7 ALA 1 OVI 1
- 8 ALA 1 OVI 1
- 9 ALA 1 OVI 1
- 10 ALA 0 OVI 1
The goals
Alavés’s chance of winning
As low as 14% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 56' | Federico Vinas (Oviedo) | 0–1 | +35% Oviedo |
| 2. 69' | Lucas Boye (Alavés) | 1–1 | +40% Alavés |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 18, 2025-26
- Rayo 1–1 Getafe Jan 2, 2026 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Celta 4–1 Valencia Jan 3, 2026 · replay 65% for Celta
- Osasuna 1–1 Athletic Jan 3, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Elche 1–3 Villarreal Jan 3, 2026 · replay 57% for Villarreal
- Espanyol 0–2 Barcelona Jan 3, 2026 · replay 74% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 0–3 Levante Jan 4, 2026 · replay 42% for Levante
- Real Madrid 5–1 Betis Jan 4, 2026 · replay 73% for Real Madrid
- Mallorca 1–2 Girona Jan 4, 2026 · replay 39% for Girona
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Atlético Jan 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws