luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 18 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 4, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Real Sociedad 1–1 Atlético: lucky or expected?

Real Sociedad and Atlético drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Real Sociedad win 4 of 10, Atlético 4, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Sociedad were expected to score 1.6 here and Atlético 1.7.

Full time

Goals
Real Sociedad 1
Atlético Madrid 1

January 4, 2026

Luck index +2 Real Sociedad about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 4, 2 end level, Atlético win 4.

  1. 1 RSO 2 ATM 1
  2. 2 RSO 1 ATM 0
  3. 3 RSO 2 ATM 0
  4. 4 RSO 3 ATM 0
  5. 5 RSO 3 ATM 3
  6. 6 RSO 1 ATM 1
  7. 7 RSO 2 ATM 5
  8. 8 RSO 1 ATM 3
  9. 9 RSO 0 ATM 1
  10. 10 RSO 2 ATM 3

The goals

Real Sociedad’s chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Real Sociedad was ahead in it, below while Atlético was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 50' Alexander Sorloth (Atlético) 0–1 +33% Atlético
2. 55' Goncalo Guedes (Real Sociedad) 1–1 +35% Real Sociedad

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

All matchday 18 matches, 2025-26 · Real Sociedad · Atlético

More from matchday 18, 2025-26

Every match of matchday 18, 2025-26