Matchday 1 · Premier League 2025-26 · August 16, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Brighton 1–1 Fulham: lucky or expected?
Brighton and Fulham drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Brighton win 5 of 10, Fulham 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Brighton were expected to score 1.5 here and Fulham 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 |
 Fulham | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −13 Brighton about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Brighton win 5, 3 end level, Fulham win 2.
- 1 BHA 1 FUL 0
- 2 BHA 2 FUL 1
- 3 BHA 1 FUL 0
- 4 BHA 3 FUL 1
- 5 BHA 3 FUL 0
- 6 BHA 3 FUL 3
- 7 BHA 0 FUL 0
- 8 BHA 0 FUL 0
- 9 BHA 0 FUL 2
- 10 BHA 1 FUL 2
The goals
Brighton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 55' | Matt Oriley (Brighton, penalty) | 1–0 | +32% Brighton |
| 90+7' | Rodrigo Muniz (Fulham) | 1–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 1, 2025-26
- Liverpool 4–2 Bournemouth Aug 15, 2025 · replay 59% for Liverpool
- Aston Villa 0–0 Newcastle Aug 16, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 West Ham Aug 16, 2025 · replay 65% for Sunderland
- Tottenham 3–0 Burnley Aug 16, 2025 · replay 70% for Tottenham
- Wolves 0–4 Man City Aug 16, 2025 · replay 83% for Man City
- Chelsea 0–0 Crystal Palace Aug 17, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Forest 3–1 Brentford Aug 17, 2025 · replay 52% for Forest
- Man United 0–1 Arsenal Aug 17, 2025 · replay 55% for Arsenal
- Leeds 1–0 Everton Aug 18, 2025 · replay 56% for Leeds