luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 1 · Premier League 2025-26 · August 17, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Forest 3–1 Brentford: lucky or expected?

Forest beat Brentford 3–1, but the goals call it even: Forest win 4 of 10, Brentford 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Forest were expected to score 1.4 here and Brentford 1.3.

Full time

Goals
Nottingham Forest 3
Brentford 1

August 17, 2025

Luck index +48 Forest lucky · −48 Brentford

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Forest win 4, 3 end level, Brentford win 3.

  1. 1 NFO 2 BRE 1
  2. 2 NFO 2 BRE 1
  3. 3 NFO 2 BRE 0
  4. 4 NFO 3 BRE 0
  5. 5 NFO 3 BRE 3
  6. 6 NFO 0 BRE 0
  7. 7 NFO 1 BRE 1
  8. 8 NFO 1 BRE 3
  9. 9 NFO 0 BRE 1
  10. 10 NFO 0 BRE 1

The goals

Forest’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Forest was ahead in it, below while Brentford was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 5' Chris Wood (Forest) 1–0 +22% Forest
2. 42' Dan Ndoye (Forest) 2–0 +13% Forest
3. 45+2' Chris Wood (Forest) 3–0 +3% Forest
4. 78' Igor Thiago (Brentford, penalty) 3–1 +1% Brentford

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Forest win 52% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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