luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 1 · Premier League 2025-26 · August 16, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Aston Villa 0–0 Newcastle: lucky or expected?

Aston Villa and Newcastle drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Aston Villa win 5 of 10, Newcastle 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Aston Villa were expected to score 1.7 here and Newcastle 1.2.

Full time

Goals
Aston Villa 0
Newcastle United 0

August 16, 2025

Luck index −11 Aston Villa about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Aston Villa win 5, 3 end level, Newcastle win 2.

  1. 1 AVL 2 NEW 1
  2. 2 AVL 1 NEW 0
  3. 3 AVL 3 NEW 1
  4. 4 AVL 2 NEW 0
  5. 5 AVL 4 NEW 0
  6. 6 AVL 2 NEW 2
  7. 7 AVL 1 NEW 1
  8. 8 AVL 2 NEW 2
  9. 9 AVL 0 NEW 2
  10. 10 AVL 1 NEW 2

The goals

No goals: Aston Villa and Newcastle drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (61% for Aston Villa, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

All matchday 1 matches, 2025-26 · Aston Villa · Newcastle

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