luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 1 · Premier League 2025-26 · August 17, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Man United 0–1 Arsenal: lucky or expected?

Arsenal beat Man United 1–0, and the goals lean Arsenal’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Man United, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man United were expected to score 1.4 here and Arsenal 1.6.

Full time

Goals
Manchester United 0
Arsenal 1

August 17, 2025

Luck index +45 Arsenal lucky · −45 Man United

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Man United win 3, 3 end level, Arsenal win 4.

  1. 1 MUN 4 ARS 3
  2. 2 MUN 1 ARS 0
  3. 3 MUN 3 ARS 1
  4. 4 MUN 2 ARS 2
  5. 5 MUN 4 ARS 4
  6. 6 MUN 2 ARS 2
  7. 7 MUN 0 ARS 3
  8. 8 MUN 1 ARS 3
  9. 9 MUN 1 ARS 2
  10. 10 MUN 2 ARS 3

The goals

Man United’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Man United was ahead in it, below while Arsenal was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 13' Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal) 0–1 +25% Arsenal

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Arsenal win 55% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 1 matches, 2025-26 · Man United · Arsenal

More from matchday 1, 2025-26

Every match of matchday 1, 2025-26