luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 1 · Premier League 2025-26 · August 17, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Chelsea 0–0 Crystal Palace: lucky or expected?

Chelsea and Crystal Palace drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Chelsea win 5 of 10, Crystal Palace 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Chelsea were expected to score 1.6 here and Crystal Palace 0.9.

Full time

Goals
Chelsea 0
Crystal Palace 0

August 17, 2025

Luck index −15 Chelsea about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Chelsea win 5, 3 end level, Crystal Palace win 2.

  1. 1 CHE 2 CRY 1
  2. 2 CHE 1 CRY 0
  3. 3 CHE 2 CRY 0
  4. 4 CHE 2 CRY 0
  5. 5 CHE 5 CRY 1
  6. 6 CHE 0 CRY 0
  7. 7 CHE 1 CRY 1
  8. 8 CHE 1 CRY 1
  9. 9 CHE 1 CRY 3
  10. 10 CHE 1 CRY 2

The goals

No goals: Chelsea and Crystal Palace drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (65% for Chelsea, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

All matchday 1 matches, 2025-26 · Chelsea · Crystal Palace

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