luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 3 · Premier League 2025-26 · August 30, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Leeds 0–0 Newcastle: lucky or expected?

Leeds and Newcastle drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Leeds win 4 of 10, Newcastle 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leeds were expected to score 1.6 here and Newcastle 1.3.

Full time

Goals
Leeds United 0
Newcastle United 0

August 30, 2025

Luck index −6 Leeds about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Leeds win 4, 3 end level, Newcastle win 3.

  1. 1 LEE 1 NEW 0
  2. 2 LEE 2 NEW 1
  3. 3 LEE 2 NEW 0
  4. 4 LEE 3 NEW 0
  5. 5 LEE 0 NEW 0
  6. 6 LEE 3 NEW 3
  7. 7 LEE 2 NEW 2
  8. 8 LEE 0 NEW 2
  9. 9 LEE 1 NEW 2
  10. 10 LEE 1 NEW 2

The goals

No goals: Leeds and Newcastle drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (56% for Leeds, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

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