Matchday 3 · Premier League 2025-26 · August 30, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Chelsea 2–0 Fulham: lucky or expected?
Chelsea beat Fulham 2–0, and the goals lean Chelsea’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Fulham, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Chelsea were expected to score 1.6 here and Fulham 1.1.
What the goals say
Luck index +38 Chelsea lucky · −38 Fulham
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 5, 3 end level, Fulham win 2.
- 1 CHE 1 FUL 0
- 2 CHE 2 FUL 1
- 3 CHE 2 FUL 0
- 4 CHE 4 FUL 2
- 5 CHE 3 FUL 0
- 6 CHE 0 FUL 0
- 7 CHE 1 FUL 1
- 8 CHE 1 FUL 1
- 9 CHE 1 FUL 3
- 10 CHE 1 FUL 2
The goals
Chelsea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 45+9' | Joao Pedro (Chelsea) | 1–0 | +31% Chelsea |
| 2. 56' | Enzo Fernandez (Chelsea, penalty) | 2–0 | +11% Chelsea |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Chelsea win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2025-26
- Tottenham 0–1 Bournemouth Aug 30, 2025 · replay 51% for Bournemouth
- Sunderland 2–1 Brentford Aug 30, 2025 · replay 53% for Sunderland
- Man United 3–2 Burnley Aug 30, 2025 · replay 81% for Man United
- Wolves 2–3 Everton Aug 30, 2025 · replay 64% for Everton
- Leeds 0–0 Newcastle Aug 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Brighton 2–1 Man City Aug 31, 2025 · replay 38% for Brighton
- Forest 0–3 West Ham Aug 31, 2025 · replay 36% for West Ham
- Liverpool 1–0 Arsenal Aug 31, 2025 · replay 40% for Liverpool
- Aston Villa 0–3 Crystal Palace Aug 31, 2025 · replay 34% for Crystal Palace