Matchday 3 · Premier League 2025-26 · August 31, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Brighton 2–1 Man City: lucky or expected?
Brighton beat Man City 2–1, but the goals lean toward Man City: 4 wins in 10 to Brighton’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Brighton were expected to score 1.1 here and Man City 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 |
 Manchester City | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +62 Brighton very lucky · −62 Man City
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Brighton win 3, 3 end level, Man City win 4.
- 1 BHA 1 MCI 0
- 2 BHA 2 MCI 1
- 3 BHA 2 MCI 0
- 4 BHA 1 MCI 1
- 5 BHA 1 MCI 1
- 6 BHA 2 MCI 2
- 7 BHA 0 MCI 3
- 8 BHA 4 MCI 6
- 9 BHA 0 MCI 1
- 10 BHA 1 MCI 2
The goals
Brighton’s chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 34' | Erling Haaland (Man City) | 0–1 | +29% Man City |
| 2. 67' | James Milner (Brighton, penalty) | 1–1 | +38% Brighton |
| 3. 89' | Brajan Gruda (Brighton) | 2–1 | +49% Brighton |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Brighton win 38% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2025-26
- Chelsea 2–0 Fulham Aug 30, 2025 · replay 62% for Chelsea
- Tottenham 0–1 Bournemouth Aug 30, 2025 · replay 51% for Bournemouth
- Sunderland 2–1 Brentford Aug 30, 2025 · replay 53% for Sunderland
- Man United 3–2 Burnley Aug 30, 2025 · replay 81% for Man United
- Wolves 2–3 Everton Aug 30, 2025 · replay 64% for Everton
- Leeds 0–0 Newcastle Aug 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Forest 0–3 West Ham Aug 31, 2025 · replay 36% for West Ham
- Liverpool 1–0 Arsenal Aug 31, 2025 · replay 40% for Liverpool
- Aston Villa 0–3 Crystal Palace Aug 31, 2025 · replay 34% for Crystal Palace