luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 3 · Premier League 2025-26 · August 31, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Forest 0–3 West Ham: lucky or expected?

West Ham beat Forest 3–0, but the goals lean toward Forest: 5 wins in 10 to West Ham’s 2, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Forest were expected to score 1.7 here and West Ham 1.1.

Full time

Goals
Nottingham Forest 0
West Ham United 3

August 31, 2025

Luck index +64 West Ham very lucky · −64 Forest

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Forest win 5, 3 end level, West Ham win 2.

  1. 1 NFO 1 WHU 0
  2. 2 NFO 2 WHU 1
  3. 3 NFO 3 WHU 1
  4. 4 NFO 2 WHU 0
  5. 5 NFO 5 WHU 2
  6. 6 NFO 2 WHU 2
  7. 7 NFO 0 WHU 0
  8. 8 NFO 0 WHU 0
  9. 9 NFO 0 WHU 2
  10. 10 NFO 1 WHU 2

The goals

Forest’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Forest was ahead in it, below while West Ham was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 84' Jarrod Bowen (West Ham) 0–1 +46% West Ham
2. 88' Lucas Paqueta (West Ham, penalty) 0–2 +2% West Ham
90+1' Callum Wilson (West Ham) 0–3

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. West Ham win 36% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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