Matchday 3 · Premier League 2025-26 · August 31, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Aston Villa 0–3 Crystal Palace: lucky or expected?
Crystal Palace beat Aston Villa 3–0, but the goals lean toward Aston Villa: 5 wins in 10 to Crystal Palace’s 2, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Aston Villa were expected to score 1.6 here and Crystal Palace 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 0 |
 Crystal Palace | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +66 Crystal Palace very lucky · −66 Aston Villa
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 5, 3 end level, Crystal Palace win 2.
- 1 AVL 1 CRY 0
- 2 AVL 1 CRY 0
- 3 AVL 4 CRY 2
- 4 AVL 2 CRY 0
- 5 AVL 3 CRY 0
- 6 AVL 0 CRY 0
- 7 AVL 2 CRY 2
- 8 AVL 1 CRY 1
- 9 AVL 0 CRY 2
- 10 AVL 1 CRY 2
The goals
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 21' | Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace, penalty) | 0–1 | +27% Crystal Palace |
| 2. 68' | Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace) | 0–2 | +12% Crystal Palace |
| 3. 78' | Ismaila Sarr (Crystal Palace) | 0–3 | +1% Crystal Palace |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Crystal Palace win 34% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 3 matches, 2025-26 · 
Aston Villa · 
Crystal Palace
More from matchday 3, 2025-26
- Chelsea 2–0 Fulham Aug 30, 2025 · replay 62% for Chelsea
- Tottenham 0–1 Bournemouth Aug 30, 2025 · replay 51% for Bournemouth
- Sunderland 2–1 Brentford Aug 30, 2025 · replay 53% for Sunderland
- Man United 3–2 Burnley Aug 30, 2025 · replay 81% for Man United
- Wolves 2–3 Everton Aug 30, 2025 · replay 64% for Everton
- Leeds 0–0 Newcastle Aug 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Brighton 2–1 Man City Aug 31, 2025 · replay 38% for Brighton
- Forest 0–3 West Ham Aug 31, 2025 · replay 36% for West Ham
- Liverpool 1–0 Arsenal Aug 31, 2025 · replay 40% for Liverpool