Matchday 4 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 13, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Arsenal 3–0 Forest: lucky or expected?
Arsenal beat Forest 3–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Arsenal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Arsenal were expected to score 1.9 here and Forest 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Arsenal | 3 |
 Nottingham Forest | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +19 Arsenal about even · −19 Forest
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 7, 2 end level, Forest win 1.
- 1 ARS 1 NFO 0
- 2 ARS 1 NFO 0
- 3 ARS 2 NFO 0
- 4 ARS 2 NFO 0
- 5 ARS 2 NFO 0
- 6 ARS 3 NFO 0
- 7 ARS 5 NFO 1
- 8 ARS 1 NFO 1
- 9 ARS 0 NFO 0
- 10 ARS 2 NFO 3
The goals
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 32' | Martin Zubimendi (Arsenal) | 1–0 | +26% Arsenal |
| 2. 46' | Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal) | 2–0 | +12% Arsenal |
| 3. 79' | Martin Zubimendi (Arsenal) | 3–0 | +0% Arsenal |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Arsenal win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 4, 2025-26
- Newcastle 1–0 Wolves Sep 13, 2025 · replay 76% for Newcastle
- Bournemouth 2–1 Brighton Sep 13, 2025 · replay 56% for Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Sunderland Sep 13, 2025 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Fulham 1–0 Leeds Sep 13, 2025 · replay 57% for Fulham
- Everton 0–0 Aston Villa Sep 13, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- West Ham 0–3 Tottenham Sep 13, 2025 · replay 49% for Tottenham
- Brentford 2–2 Chelsea Sep 13, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Burnley 0–1 Liverpool Sep 14, 2025 · replay 67% for Liverpool
- Man City 3–0 Man United Sep 14, 2025 · replay 66% for Man City