luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 4 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 13, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Fulham 1–0 Leeds: lucky or expected?

Fulham beat Leeds 1–0, and the goals lean Fulham’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Leeds, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Fulham were expected to score 1.4 here and Leeds 1.1. An own goal helped Fulham.

Full time

Goals
Fulham 1
Leeds United 0

September 13, 2025

Luck index +43 Fulham lucky · −43 Leeds

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Fulham win 4, 3 end level, Leeds win 3.

  1. 1 FUL 1 LEE 0
  2. 2 FUL 1 LEE 0
  3. 3 FUL 2 LEE 0
  4. 4 FUL 3 LEE 0
  5. 5 FUL 1 LEE 1
  6. 6 FUL 1 LEE 1
  7. 7 FUL 2 LEE 2
  8. 8 FUL 1 LEE 3
  9. 9 FUL 0 LEE 1
  10. 10 FUL 0 LEE 1

The goals

MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
90+4' Gabriel Gudmundsson (Fulham, own goal) 1–0

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Fulham win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 4 matches, 2025-26 · Fulham · Leeds

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