Matchday 4 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 13, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
West Ham 0–3 Tottenham: lucky or expected?
Tottenham beat West Ham 3–0, but the goals call it even: Tottenham win 3 of 10, West Ham 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, West Ham were expected to score 1.5 here and Tottenham 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 West Ham United | 0 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +51 Tottenham lucky · −51 West Ham
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 4, 3 end level, Tottenham win 3.
- 1 WHU 1 TOT 0
- 2 WHU 1 TOT 0
- 3 WHU 2 TOT 0
- 4 WHU 3 TOT 0
- 5 WHU 0 TOT 0
- 6 WHU 2 TOT 2
- 7 WHU 0 TOT 0
- 8 WHU 0 TOT 2
- 9 WHU 0 TOT 1
- 10 WHU 2 TOT 3
The goals
West Ham’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 47' | Pape Matar Sarr (Tottenham) | 0–1 | +32% Tottenham |
| 2. 57' | Lucas Bergvall (Tottenham) | 0–2 | +15% Tottenham |
| 3. 64' | Micky Van De Ven (Tottenham) | 0–3 | +3% Tottenham |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Tottenham win 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 4, 2025-26
- Arsenal 3–0 Forest Sep 13, 2025 · replay 81% for Arsenal
- Newcastle 1–0 Wolves Sep 13, 2025 · replay 76% for Newcastle
- Bournemouth 2–1 Brighton Sep 13, 2025 · replay 56% for Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Sunderland Sep 13, 2025 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Fulham 1–0 Leeds Sep 13, 2025 · replay 57% for Fulham
- Everton 0–0 Aston Villa Sep 13, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Brentford 2–2 Chelsea Sep 13, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Burnley 0–1 Liverpool Sep 14, 2025 · replay 67% for Liverpool
- Man City 3–0 Man United Sep 14, 2025 · replay 66% for Man City