luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 4 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 14, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Burnley 0–1 Liverpool: lucky or expected?

Liverpool beat Burnley 1–0, and the goals lean Liverpool’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Burnley, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Burnley were expected to score 1.2 here and Liverpool 2.1.

Full time

Goals
Burnley 0
Liverpool 1

September 14, 2025

Luck index +33 Liverpool lucky · −33 Burnley

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Burnley win 2, 2 end level, Liverpool win 6.

  1. 1 BUR 1 LIV 0
  2. 2 BUR 2 LIV 0
  3. 3 BUR 2 LIV 2
  4. 4 BUR 1 LIV 1
  5. 5 BUR 1 LIV 5
  6. 6 BUR 4 LIV 7
  7. 7 BUR 0 LIV 2
  8. 8 BUR 2 LIV 3
  9. 9 BUR 1 LIV 2
  10. 10 BUR 2 LIV 3

The goals

MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
90+5' Mohamed Salah (Liverpool, penalty) 0–1

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Liverpool win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 4 matches, 2025-26 · Burnley · Liverpool

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