luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 4 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 13, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Everton 0–0 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?

Everton and Aston Villa drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Everton win 4 of 10, Aston Villa 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Everton were expected to score 1.3 here and Aston Villa 1.2.

Full time

Goals
Everton 0
Aston Villa 0

September 13, 2025

Luck index −2 Everton about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Everton win 4, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 3.

  1. 1 EVE 1 AVL 0
  2. 2 EVE 1 AVL 0
  3. 3 EVE 2 AVL 0
  4. 4 EVE 3 AVL 0
  5. 5 EVE 0 AVL 0
  6. 6 EVE 0 AVL 0
  7. 7 EVE 0 AVL 0
  8. 8 EVE 2 AVL 4
  9. 9 EVE 0 AVL 1
  10. 10 EVE 0 AVL 1

The goals

No goals: Everton and Aston Villa drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (52% for Everton, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

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