Matchday 6 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 27, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Forest 0–1 Sunderland: lucky or expected?
Sunderland beat Forest 1–0, but the goals lean toward Forest: 4 wins in 10 to Sunderland’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Forest were expected to score 1.2 here and Sunderland 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Nottingham Forest | 0 |
 Sunderland | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +57 Sunderland lucky · −57 Forest
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Forest win 4, 3 end level, Sunderland win 3.
- 1 NFO 1 SUN 0
- 2 NFO 1 SUN 0
- 3 NFO 2 SUN 0
- 4 NFO 3 SUN 0
- 5 NFO 2 SUN 2
- 6 NFO 3 SUN 3
- 7 NFO 1 SUN 1
- 8 NFO 1 SUN 3
- 9 NFO 0 SUN 1
- 10 NFO 1 SUN 2
The goals
Forest’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 38' | Omar Alderete (Sunderland) | 0–1 | +30% Sunderland |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Sunderland win 43% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2025-26
- Brentford 3–1 Man United Sep 27, 2025 · replay 48% for Brentford
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Liverpool Sep 27, 2025 · replay 46% for Crystal Palace
- Chelsea 1–3 Brighton Sep 27, 2025 · replay 44% for Brighton
- Man City 5–1 Burnley Sep 27, 2025 · replay 89% for Man City
- Leeds 2–2 Bournemouth Sep 27, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Tottenham 1–1 Wolves Sep 27, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Aston Villa 3–1 Fulham Sep 28, 2025 · replay 62% for Aston Villa
- Newcastle 1–2 Arsenal Sep 28, 2025 · replay 66% for Arsenal
- Everton 1–1 West Ham Sep 29, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws