Matchday 6 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 28, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Aston Villa 3–1 Fulham: lucky or expected?
Aston Villa beat Fulham 3–1, and the goals lean Aston Villa’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Fulham, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Aston Villa were expected to score 1.6 here and Fulham 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 3 |
 Fulham | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +38 Aston Villa lucky · −38 Fulham
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 5, 3 end level, Fulham win 2.
- 1 AVL 2 FUL 1
- 2 AVL 1 FUL 0
- 3 AVL 1 FUL 0
- 4 AVL 2 FUL 0
- 5 AVL 3 FUL 0
- 6 AVL 0 FUL 0
- 7 AVL 3 FUL 3
- 8 AVL 2 FUL 2
- 9 AVL 0 FUL 2
- 10 AVL 3 FUL 4
The goals
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 3' | Raul Jimenez (Fulham) | 0–1 | +24% Fulham |
| 2. 37' | Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) | 1–1 | +30% Aston Villa |
| 3. 49' | John McGinn (Aston Villa) | 2–1 | +30% Aston Villa |
| 4. 51' | Emiliano Buendia (Aston Villa) | 3–1 | +12% Aston Villa |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2025-26
- Brentford 3–1 Man United Sep 27, 2025 · replay 48% for Brentford
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Liverpool Sep 27, 2025 · replay 46% for Crystal Palace
- Chelsea 1–3 Brighton Sep 27, 2025 · replay 44% for Brighton
- Man City 5–1 Burnley Sep 27, 2025 · replay 89% for Man City
- Leeds 2–2 Bournemouth Sep 27, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Forest 0–1 Sunderland Sep 27, 2025 · replay 43% for Sunderland
- Tottenham 1–1 Wolves Sep 27, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–2 Arsenal Sep 28, 2025 · replay 66% for Arsenal
- Everton 1–1 West Ham Sep 29, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws