luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 6 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 27, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Man City 5–1 Burnley: lucky or expected?

Man City beat Burnley 5–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Man City win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man City were expected to score 2.7 here and Burnley 0.5. An own goal helped Man City.

Full time

Goals
Manchester City 5
Burnley 1

September 27, 2025

Luck index +11 Man City about even · −11 Burnley

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Man City win 8, 1 ends level, Burnley win 1.

  1. 1 MCI 1 BUR 0
  2. 2 MCI 1 BUR 0
  3. 3 MCI 2 BUR 0
  4. 4 MCI 2 BUR 0
  5. 5 MCI 3 BUR 0
  6. 6 MCI 3 BUR 0
  7. 7 MCI 4 BUR 0
  8. 8 MCI 5 BUR 0
  9. 9 MCI 1 BUR 1
  10. 10 MCI 0 BUR 1

The goals

Man City’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Man City was ahead in it, below while Burnley was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 12' Maxime Esteve (Man City, own goal) 1–0 +23% Man City
2. 38' Jaidon Anthony (Burnley) 1–1 +27% Burnley
3. 61' Matheus Nunes (Man City) 2–1 +34% Man City
4. 65' Maxime Esteve (Man City, own goal) 3–1 +10% Man City
5. 90' Erling Haaland (Man City) 4–1 +0% Man City
90+3' Erling Haaland (Man City) 5–1

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man City win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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