luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 6 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 27, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Crystal Palace 2–1 Liverpool: lucky or expected?

Crystal Palace beat Liverpool 2–1, but the goals call it even: Crystal Palace win 3 of 10, Liverpool 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Crystal Palace were expected to score 1.3 here and Liverpool 1.5.

Full time

Goals
Crystal Palace 2
Liverpool 1

September 27, 2025

Luck index +54 Crystal Palace lucky · −54 Liverpool

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 3, 3 end level, Liverpool win 4.

  1. 1 CRY 1 LIV 0
  2. 2 CRY 1 LIV 0
  3. 3 CRY 3 LIV 1
  4. 4 CRY 0 LIV 0
  5. 5 CRY 0 LIV 0
  6. 6 CRY 1 LIV 1
  7. 7 CRY 0 LIV 3
  8. 8 CRY 0 LIV 2
  9. 9 CRY 1 LIV 2
  10. 10 CRY 0 LIV 1

The goals

Crystal Palace’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Crystal Palace was ahead in it, below while Liverpool was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 9' Ismaila Sarr (Crystal Palace) 1–0 +23% Crystal Palace
2. 87' Federico Chiesa (Liverpool) 1–1 +48% Liverpool
90+7' Eddie Nketiah (Crystal Palace) 2–1

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Crystal Palace win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 6 matches, 2025-26 · Crystal Palace · Liverpool

More from matchday 6, 2025-26

Every match of matchday 6, 2025-26