Matchday 10 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 1, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Forest 2–2 Man United: lucky or expected?
Forest and Man United drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Forest win 3 of 10, Man United 4, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Forest were expected to score 1.4 here and Man United 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Nottingham Forest | 2 |
 Manchester United | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +6 Forest about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Forest win 3, 3 end level, Man United win 4.
- 1 NFO 2 MUN 1
- 2 NFO 4 MUN 2
- 3 NFO 2 MUN 0
- 4 NFO 1 MUN 1
- 5 NFO 2 MUN 2
- 6 NFO 2 MUN 2
- 7 NFO 0 MUN 3
- 8 NFO 0 MUN 2
- 9 NFO 1 MUN 2
- 10 NFO 3 MUN 4
The goals
Forest’s chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 34' | Casemiro (Man United) | 0–1 | +29% Man United |
| 2. 48' | Morgan Gibbs White (Forest) | 1–1 | +32% Forest |
| 3. 50' | Nicolo Savona (Forest) | 2–1 | +30% Forest |
| 4. 81' | Amad Diallo (Man United) | 2–2 | +43% Man United |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 10, 2025-26
- Fulham 3–0 Wolves Nov 1, 2025 · replay 76% for Fulham
- Crystal Palace 2–0 Brentford Nov 1, 2025 · replay 50% for Crystal Palace
- Burnley 0–2 Arsenal Nov 1, 2025 · replay 82% for Arsenal
- Brighton 3–0 Leeds Nov 1, 2025 · replay 62% for Brighton
- Tottenham 0–1 Chelsea Nov 1, 2025 · replay 51% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 2–0 Aston Villa Nov 1, 2025 · replay 58% for Liverpool
- West Ham 3–1 Newcastle Nov 2, 2025 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Man City 3–1 Bournemouth Nov 2, 2025 · replay 73% for Man City
- Sunderland 1–1 Everton Nov 3, 2025 · drawn; replay 31% draws