Matchday 10 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 2, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
West Ham 3–1 Newcastle: lucky or expected?
West Ham beat Newcastle 3–1, but the goals call it even: West Ham win 3 of 10, Newcastle 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, West Ham were expected to score 1.5 here and Newcastle 1.6. An own goal helped West Ham.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 West Ham United | 3 |
 Newcastle United | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +52 West Ham lucky · −52 Newcastle
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 3, 3 end level, Newcastle win 4.
- 1 WHU 2 NEW 1
- 2 WHU 2 NEW 1
- 3 WHU 3 NEW 1
- 4 WHU 2 NEW 2
- 5 WHU 1 NEW 1
- 6 WHU 3 NEW 3
- 7 WHU 4 NEW 7
- 8 WHU 0 NEW 2
- 9 WHU 2 NEW 3
- 10 WHU 1 NEW 2
The goals
West Ham’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 4' | Jacob Murphy (Newcastle) | 0–1 | +24% Newcastle |
| 2. 35' | Lucas Paqueta (West Ham) | 1–1 | +29% West Ham |
| 3. 45+5' | Sven Botman (West Ham, own goal) | 2–1 | +30% West Ham |
| 90+7' | Tomas Soucek (West Ham) | 3–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. West Ham win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2025-26
- Fulham 3–0 Wolves Nov 1, 2025 · replay 76% for Fulham
- Crystal Palace 2–0 Brentford Nov 1, 2025 · replay 50% for Crystal Palace
- Forest 2–2 Man United Nov 1, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Burnley 0–2 Arsenal Nov 1, 2025 · replay 82% for Arsenal
- Brighton 3–0 Leeds Nov 1, 2025 · replay 62% for Brighton
- Tottenham 0–1 Chelsea Nov 1, 2025 · replay 51% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 2–0 Aston Villa Nov 1, 2025 · replay 58% for Liverpool
- Man City 3–1 Bournemouth Nov 2, 2025 · replay 73% for Man City
- Sunderland 1–1 Everton Nov 3, 2025 · drawn; replay 31% draws