Matchday 10 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 3, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Sunderland 1–1 Everton: lucky or expected?
Sunderland and Everton drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Sunderland win 4 of 10, Everton 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Sunderland were expected to score 1.2 here and Everton 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Sunderland | 1 |
 Everton | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −7 Sunderland about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 4, 3 end level, Everton win 3.
- 1 SUN 2 EVE 1
- 2 SUN 1 EVE 0
- 3 SUN 4 EVE 2
- 4 SUN 3 EVE 1
- 5 SUN 2 EVE 2
- 6 SUN 1 EVE 1
- 7 SUN 0 EVE 0
- 8 SUN 0 EVE 2
- 9 SUN 0 EVE 1
- 10 SUN 0 EVE 1
The goals
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 15' | Iliman Ndiaye (Everton) | 0–1 | +26% Everton |
| 2. 46' | Granit Xhaka (Sunderland) | 1–1 | +32% Sunderland |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 10, 2025-26
- Fulham 3–0 Wolves Nov 1, 2025 · replay 76% for Fulham
- Crystal Palace 2–0 Brentford Nov 1, 2025 · replay 50% for Crystal Palace
- Forest 2–2 Man United Nov 1, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Burnley 0–2 Arsenal Nov 1, 2025 · replay 82% for Arsenal
- Brighton 3–0 Leeds Nov 1, 2025 · replay 62% for Brighton
- Tottenham 0–1 Chelsea Nov 1, 2025 · replay 51% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 2–0 Aston Villa Nov 1, 2025 · replay 58% for Liverpool
- West Ham 3–1 Newcastle Nov 2, 2025 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Man City 3–1 Bournemouth Nov 2, 2025 · replay 73% for Man City