Matchday 10 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 2, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man City 3–1 Bournemouth: lucky or expected?
Man City beat Bournemouth 3–1, and the goals lean Man City’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Bournemouth, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man City were expected to score 2.2 here and Bournemouth 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester City | 3 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +27 Man City lucky · −27 Bournemouth
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 6, 2 end level, Bournemouth win 2.
- 1 MCI 1 BOU 0
- 2 MCI 1 BOU 0
- 3 MCI 3 BOU 1
- 4 MCI 2 BOU 0
- 5 MCI 4 BOU 1
- 6 MCI 4 BOU 0
- 7 MCI 1 BOU 1
- 8 MCI 2 BOU 2
- 9 MCI 1 BOU 3
- 10 MCI 1 BOU 2
The goals
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 17' | Erling Haaland (Man City) | 1–0 | +24% Man City |
| 2. 25' | Tyler Adams (Bournemouth) | 1–1 | +25% Bournemouth |
| 3. 33' | Erling Haaland (Man City) | 2–1 | +26% Man City |
| 4. 60' | Nico Oreilly (Man City) | 3–1 | +11% Man City |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man City win 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2025-26
- Fulham 3–0 Wolves Nov 1, 2025 · replay 76% for Fulham
- Crystal Palace 2–0 Brentford Nov 1, 2025 · replay 50% for Crystal Palace
- Forest 2–2 Man United Nov 1, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Burnley 0–2 Arsenal Nov 1, 2025 · replay 82% for Arsenal
- Brighton 3–0 Leeds Nov 1, 2025 · replay 62% for Brighton
- Tottenham 0–1 Chelsea Nov 1, 2025 · replay 51% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 2–0 Aston Villa Nov 1, 2025 · replay 58% for Liverpool
- West Ham 3–1 Newcastle Nov 2, 2025 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Sunderland 1–1 Everton Nov 3, 2025 · drawn; replay 31% draws