Matchday 16 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 14, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Crystal Palace 0–3 Man City: lucky or expected?
Man City beat Crystal Palace 3–0, and the goals lean Man City’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Crystal Palace, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Crystal Palace were expected to score 0.8 here and Man City 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 0 |
 Manchester City | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +30 Man City lucky · −30 Crystal Palace
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 2, 2 end level, Man City win 6.
- 1 CRY 2 MCI 1
- 2 CRY 3 MCI 1
- 3 CRY 1 MCI 1
- 4 CRY 2 MCI 2
- 5 CRY 1 MCI 4
- 6 CRY 1 MCI 4
- 7 CRY 1 MCI 3
- 8 CRY 2 MCI 3
- 9 CRY 1 MCI 2
- 10 CRY 1 MCI 2
The goals
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 41' | Erling Haaland (Man City) | 0–1 | +30% Man City |
| 2. 69' | Phil Foden (Man City) | 0–2 | +12% Man City |
| 3. 89' | Erling Haaland (Man City, penalty) | 0–3 | +0% Man City |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man City win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 16 matches, 2025-26 · 
Crystal Palace · 
Man City
More from matchday 16, 2025-26
- Chelsea 2–0 Everton Dec 13, 2025 · replay 61% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 2–0 Brighton Dec 13, 2025 · replay 59% for Liverpool
- Burnley 2–3 Fulham Dec 13, 2025 · replay 60% for Fulham
- Arsenal 2–1 Wolves Dec 13, 2025 · replay 92% for Arsenal
- Forest 3–0 Tottenham Dec 14, 2025 · replay 59% for Forest
- Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle Dec 14, 2025 · replay 56% for Sunderland
- West Ham 2–3 Aston Villa Dec 14, 2025 · replay 57% for Aston Villa
- Brentford 1–1 Leeds Dec 14, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Man United 4–4 Bournemouth Dec 15, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws