Matchday 16 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 15, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man United 4–4 Bournemouth: lucky or expected?
Man United and Bournemouth drew 4–4. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Man United win 5 of 10, Bournemouth 3, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man United were expected to score 2.0 here and Bournemouth 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester United | 4 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 4 |
What the goals say
Luck index −13 Man United about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 5, 2 end level, Bournemouth win 3.
- 1 MUN 1 BOU 0
- 2 MUN 1 BOU 0
- 3 MUN 4 BOU 2
- 4 MUN 2 BOU 0
- 5 MUN 3 BOU 0
- 6 MUN 1 BOU 1
- 7 MUN 1 BOU 1
- 8 MUN 1 BOU 4
- 9 MUN 0 BOU 1
- 10 MUN 1 BOU 2
The goals
Man United’s chance of winning
As low as 9% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 13' | Amad Diallo (Man United) | 1–0 | +23% Man United |
| 2. 40' | Antoine Semenyo (Bournemouth) | 1–1 | +28% Bournemouth |
| 3. 45+4' | Casemiro (Man United) | 2–1 | +32% Man United |
| 4. 46' | Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa (Bournemouth) | 2–2 | +32% Bournemouth |
| 5. 52' | Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth) | 2–3 | +33% Bournemouth |
| 6. 77' | Bruno Fernandes (Man United) | 3–3 | +43% Man United |
| 7. 79' | Matheus Cunha (Man United) | 4–3 | +42% Man United |
| 8. 84' | Eli Junior Kroupi (Bournemouth) | 4–4 | +45% Bournemouth |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 16, 2025-26
- Chelsea 2–0 Everton Dec 13, 2025 · replay 61% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 2–0 Brighton Dec 13, 2025 · replay 59% for Liverpool
- Burnley 2–3 Fulham Dec 13, 2025 · replay 60% for Fulham
- Arsenal 2–1 Wolves Dec 13, 2025 · replay 92% for Arsenal
- Forest 3–0 Tottenham Dec 14, 2025 · replay 59% for Forest
- Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle Dec 14, 2025 · replay 56% for Sunderland
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Man City Dec 14, 2025 · replay 70% for Man City
- West Ham 2–3 Aston Villa Dec 14, 2025 · replay 57% for Aston Villa
- Brentford 1–1 Leeds Dec 14, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws