Matchday 16 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 14, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
West Ham 2–3 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?
Aston Villa beat West Ham 3–2, and the goals lean Aston Villa’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for West Ham, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, West Ham were expected to score 1.3 here and Aston Villa 1.6. An own goal helped Aston Villa.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 West Ham United | 2 |
 Aston Villa | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +43 Aston Villa lucky · −43 West Ham
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 3, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 4.
- 1 WHU 1 AVL 0
- 2 WHU 1 AVL 0
- 3 WHU 2 AVL 0
- 4 WHU 0 AVL 0
- 5 WHU 0 AVL 0
- 6 WHU 1 AVL 1
- 7 WHU 3 AVL 6
- 8 WHU 0 AVL 2
- 9 WHU 0 AVL 1
- 10 WHU 0 AVL 1
The goals
West Ham’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 1' | Mateus Fernandes (West Ham) | 1–0 | +22% West Ham |
| 2. 9' | Konstantinos Mavropanos (Aston Villa, own goal) | 1–1 | +23% Aston Villa |
| 3. 24' | Jarrod Bowen (West Ham) | 2–1 | +25% West Ham |
| 4. 50' | Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) | 2–2 | +30% Aston Villa |
| 5. 79' | Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) | 2–3 | +44% Aston Villa |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 16, 2025-26
- Chelsea 2–0 Everton Dec 13, 2025 · replay 61% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 2–0 Brighton Dec 13, 2025 · replay 59% for Liverpool
- Burnley 2–3 Fulham Dec 13, 2025 · replay 60% for Fulham
- Arsenal 2–1 Wolves Dec 13, 2025 · replay 92% for Arsenal
- Forest 3–0 Tottenham Dec 14, 2025 · replay 59% for Forest
- Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle Dec 14, 2025 · replay 56% for Sunderland
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Man City Dec 14, 2025 · replay 70% for Man City
- Brentford 1–1 Leeds Dec 14, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Man United 4–4 Bournemouth Dec 15, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws