Matchday 19 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 30, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Arsenal 4–1 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?
Arsenal beat Aston Villa 4–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Arsenal win 6 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Arsenal were expected to score 1.9 here and Aston Villa 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Arsenal | 4 |
 Aston Villa | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +25 Arsenal about even · −25 Aston Villa
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 6, 2 end level, Aston Villa win 2.
- 1 ARS 2 AVL 1
- 2 ARS 2 AVL 1
- 3 ARS 2 AVL 0
- 4 ARS 2 AVL 0
- 5 ARS 4 AVL 1
- 6 ARS 5 AVL 1
- 7 ARS 2 AVL 2
- 8 ARS 1 AVL 1
- 9 ARS 0 AVL 1
- 10 ARS 0 AVL 1
The goals
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 48' | Gabriel Magalhaes (Arsenal) | 1–0 | +30% Arsenal |
| 2. 52' | Martin Zubimendi (Arsenal) | 2–0 | +12% Arsenal |
| 3. 69' | Leandro Trossard (Arsenal) | 3–0 | +1% Arsenal |
| 4. 78' | Gabriel Jesus (Arsenal) | 4–0 | +0% Arsenal |
| 90+4' | Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) | 4–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Arsenal win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 19, 2025-26
- Burnley 1–3 Newcastle Dec 30, 2025 · replay 61% for Newcastle
- West Ham 2–2 Brighton Dec 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Forest 0–2 Everton Dec 30, 2025 · replay 44% for Everton
- Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth Dec 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Man United 1–1 Wolves Dec 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Liverpool 0–0 Leeds Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Fulham Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Sunderland 0–0 Man City Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Brentford 0–0 Tottenham Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws